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I would have been smarter to put this comment here instead of in Corio 2025:
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/archive/aus2025/corio2025/comment-page-2#comment-864977
I think this will become a Labor vs ONP contest. This follows results from the SA state election and Farrer by-election.
ONP may come second on primary votes and benefit from preference flows from smaller parties. There would be a collapse in the Liberal vote as working-class voters and semi-rural voters see a new non-Labor alternative. The areas most likely to see surges in ONP votes are the working-class eastern suburbs and semi-rural areas like Lara and Bannockburn.
It’s possible that some working-class Greens voters are protest voters or economically populist and would swing to ONP (which I think might’ve happened at the Farrer by-election). They might be our version of the Sanders-Trump voter.
Easy to see ON coming second but hard to see Labor losing without their being some sort of Keir Starmer collapse in the vote. Using the crude numbers from Bludgertrack, Labor would seem to end up in the mid 50s somewhere.
@ Redistrubuted
Difference is if Labor is losing votes to its left flank like Keir Starmer is as well, in Australia it will still flow to Labor on 2CP unless Greens outpoll Labor and becomes a GRN V ONP seat which Greens will win. Harold Holt was the last Liberal to win Corio that was due to the DLP but those days are long gone. If the DLP did not exist then it would have become a safe Labor seat in the Late 1950s and post war indutrialisation was complete (Oil Refinery was completed in the late 50s). The closest comparison to this seat is Cunningham and Newcastle. The difference is that that Wollongong and Newcastle are bigger cities than Geelong so a lot of the Outer Suburban/Peri-Urban areas are in other seats. Even if Labor gets a Whitlam style 1975 defeat Corio will not fall to any right wing party.
(In response to a comment above) I doubt that people who voted for the Greens in 2025 are going to suddenly turn around and vote One Nation in 2028… Unlike Labor and especially Liberals, the Greens aren’t losing ground to One Nation and nationwide polling has consistently upheld this.
Furthermore, the demographics of Geelong has shifted significantly and its favoured the Left rather than the Right, a process that really gained steam during the pandemic and is still playing out today, with lot of people moving here (and other regional centres) as the inner suburbs of Melbourne become too expensive to live in. I feel that’s what’s driven the Greens vote increase in many parts of the electorate – people living in inner Melbourne who voted Greens in the 2010’s, moving to Geelong in the 2020’s where it’s less expensive, and taking their voting habits with them.
One Nation aren’t a chance in hell here, even if they do make the top 2. Yes there’s resentment about the loss of traditional manufacturing but it’s been 10 years since Ford closed. It’s been 12 years since Alcoa closed. People impact d by that have either hit retirement age by now, or have moved on.
Yes there’s a generally reactionary core in Geelong that’s receptive to culture wars rubbish but it’s nowhere near enough to drive One Nation to victory in this seat.
Yes there’s also general resentment about the incumbent MP too who takes the seat for granted making him completely exploitable, but it’s more something that a well supported community independent/‘teal’ or a well-resourced Greens campaign would be better placed to effectively take advantage of, rather than One Nation. In absence of that, most people not voting Liberal or One Nation will hold their nose and pref Labor ahead of One Nation.
Also one more thing, in response to Nimalan: the chance of a One Nation vs Greens TCP in Corio in 2028 is absolutely a live possibility if current polling trends hold, especially if the latter run a decent local campaign.
I’d say Labor will hold. I don’t think Labor will miss out on the 2CP.
If the One Nation momentum goes on till the election, there is the possibility of One Nation in government is real and Pauline Hanson goes from de facto opposition leader to kingmaker. Left-leaning, non-Labor voters would probably hold their noses would get behind and vote Labor.